This year marks 25 years since the release of the first entry in the Persona series, with Shin Megami Tensei: Persona first releasing in Japan back on September 20, 1996. Lots of things have changed since then, with Persona's popularity pushing the JRPG spin-off beyond its origins in the other big JRPG series that Atlus develops. However, most fans are abundantly aware of the fact that Persona wouldn't exist without Shin Megami Tensei, Atlus' formative JRPG franchise that has stuck around since 1987. Now, in 2021, both franchises are distinctly all their own, which can be a blessing and a curse specifically for Shin Megami Tensei, which has far more niche appeal than Persona.
Ironically enough, while Persona is celebrating its anniversary this year, Atlus' other JRPG franchise is getting a new entry first. It's been at least four years since the last entry in the Shin Megami Tensei franchise, and arguably even longer if you don't count an enhanced re-release. The last numbered mainline entry in the SMT series was Shin Megami Tensei 4, releasing back in 2013 on the Nintendo 3DS. This year, Shin Megami Tensei 5 is planned to release this fall, though obviously Atlus wants to drum hype for Persona's anniversary as well. Even if there's no new Persona game/spin-off planned for this year, Atlus may be accidentally stealing SMT5's spotlight.
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Persona's Anniversary is a Huge Event for Atlus
Now, in all fairness, both the Persona and Shin Megami Tensei franchises are massively popular JRPGs in their own right. Each series has its own dedicated fanbase, even though there's certainly some degree of crossover between both, especially now. Persona's burgeoning popularity with Persona 5, along with Shin Megami Tensei 3: Nocturne's recent remaster making the originally PS2 game more accessible, it's certainly become a lot easier for fans of each series to bleed into each other's fanbases. However, things have certainly changed since the origins of both franchises, flipping expectations as a wider worldwide fanbase resonated more with Persona.
Even if Shin Megami Tensei technically was conceived "first," strictly in comparison, Persona has become the far more popular sister franchise to SMT. Persona may have originated as a Shin Megami Tensei spin-off series because it largely followed the same JRPG design, but that's not really true anymore. Arguably starting with the formative Persona 3, the western popularity of Persona began to climb incrementally as the franchise became a more mainstream JRPG. Uniquely blending the usual dungeon-crawling trappings of the genre alongside a light social simulator, many have come to love Persona's evolution from a SMT-esque spin-off to something unique.
Unfortunate Timing for Shin Megami Tensei 5
Unfortunately, with Shin Megami Tensei 5 coming out later this year, releasing next to Persona's 25th anniversary is certainly not going to help the next SMT game. Similar to Shin Megami Tensei 3: Nocturne's release back in 2003, Shin Megami Tensei 5 is serving as a sort-of resurgence for the franchise after a long abscence between mainline games. Granted, the SMT franchise is not in any particularly desparate situation to stay relevant, but it is still an unfortunate circumstance of timing. Sega and Atlus' marketing can only carry Shin Megami Tensei 5 so far, especially if it's a Nintendo Switch exclusive JRPG.
Obviously Atlus is going to want to garner as much excitement from existing and potential fans for Shin Megami Tensei 5. However, with Persona's anniversary planning seven announcements between now and fall 2022, Atlus simultaneously drumming up hype for its other flagship JRPG series could cause at least some degree of hype canniabalism. Especially with the first major anniversary announcement coming as early as September, and SMT5 planned to release in November, the two franchises are certainly going to be competing for Atlus fans' attention, depending on what that September announcement could be.
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Fanbase Crossover Could Determine Shin Megami Tensei 5's Success
That September announcement could be as simple as a new merchandise launch, or another tour of the Persona live band, but it's unlikely that the first anniversary announcement would be that simple. The more likely outcome would be the next big Persona 5 spin-off, whatever form that may take. Whether it's the often rumored Persona 5 fighting game, or potentially something more ambitious or different, Persona 5's popularity still has the potential for more spin-off love. Plus, in any reality, a potential Persona 6 release likely isn't coming for another few years at the very least.
Then again, Atlus may simply understand that the crossover between both franchises is either going to be very beneficial or irrelevant for Shin Megami Tensei 5. Again, considering both franchises are developed by Atlus, they're both relatively similar to one another. The degree of fanbase crossover could be significant enough that blended marketing could help for the sucess of both Persona and Shin Megami Tensei. Either that, or the degree of fan crossover is so negligible that drumming up hype for both franchises simultaneously won't have a tangible impact on the success of either. Regardless, there is still the chance that Persona's anniversary is drawing attention away from Shin Megami Tensei 5 to some extent.
Shin Megami Tensei 5 releases on November 11, 2021, on Nintendo Switch.
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